A More Robust Year for Housing in 2015

Housing-Market-Rising-Graph-and-Houses-300x225By Michael Neal

NAHB hosted an economic and housing outlook seminar at its International Builders’ Show in Las Vegas inviting Frank Nothaft, chief economist at Freddie Mac, and David Berson, chief economist at Nationwide Insurance, to join David Crowe to discuss the outlook for 2015. Here’s the highlights.

A strengthening labor market, low interest rates, improving mortgage availability and growing pent-up demand will help to significantly boost single-family housing production in the year ahead and move the housing recovery to higher ground.

Accelerating economic growth and employment gains are the primary factors that have helped consumer confidence jump back to pre-recession levels, according to NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.

The signs point to a more robust year for housing. Household balance sheets are returning to normal levels, home owners’ equity is increasing and significant pent-up demand is rising. More than 7 million existing home sales were postponed or lost during the downturn; and while some are lost forever, we should see some catch-up.

NAHB is projecting 993,000 total housing starts in 2014, up 6.7 percent from last year’s total of 930,000 units.

Single-family production is expected to rise 26 percent in 2015 to 804,000 units. This is a good beginning, but is still well below a normal level of 1.3 to 1.4 million single-family starts.

On the multifamily front, NAHB is anticipating 358,000 starts in 2015, up 2 percent from 352,000 last year.

The sale of new single-family homes is expected to hit 564,000 this year, a 29.3 percent increase above last year’s 436,000 in sales.

Meanwhile, residential remodeling activity is expected to register a 3 percent gain this year over 2014.

The ongoing housing recovery will see single-family starts steadily climb from 49 percent of normal production at the end of the third quarter of 2014 all the way up to 90 percent of normal by the end of 2016. Examining the recovery on a state level, by the end of 2016, the top 40 percent of states will be back to near normal production levels, compared to the bottom 20 percent, which will still be below 75 percent.

David Berson focused on household formations. The number of new household formations was far fewer in the current economic expansion than in previous recoveries.

Given the job growth we’ve seen in 2014, there should have been better household formations. The slower pace may be because the real acceleration in job growth has occurred just recently – in the last six months. As the economy and job growth continue to strengthen in 2015 this will be a significant factor to encourage people who have doubled up to move out on their own.

Moreover, the real slowdown in household formations has come from the Millennials, who have suffered disproportionately from stagnant wage growth and student debt. However, this key demographic is getting older and ready to set down roots. The leading edge are now in their young 30s. Homeownership desire is much higher for those who are in their 30s than those in their 20s.

Frank Nothaft also foresees a good year for housing.

Freddie Mac is projecting 3 percent economic growth in 2015, which would only be the second year in the last decade that we’ve seen growth at that level. A stronger economy supports a rise in household formation and home buying.

Not quite as bullish as NAHB, Nothaft expects that housing starts will rise about 15 percent in 2015, and that home sales will be up 4 percent, which would be the best year for home sales since 2007. He added that nationwide home prices this year should increase about 3.5 percent to 4 percent above last year’s level.

With 30-year mortgages currently running at about 3.75 percent, Nothaft called them “dirt cheap” and says he expects rates to rise this year but remain at affordable levels.

About the Author
Greg_Close Main

Greg DiGiorgio is a highly reviewed Arlington MA Realtor who is a dedicated, passionate, and market-savvy professional who puts his clients’ satisfaction before all else. His attention to detail, superior people skills, broad knowledge of the real estate industry as a whole, and his pure determination to indulge his clients with first class service sets him apart. In addition to Greg being an Accredited Buyers Representative-ABR, he understands the power of creative, well-organized and highly effective marketing and offers customized marketing plans that maximize property exposure to the most qualified buyers. He has appeared several times on Fox 25 News where he was interviewed on current market trends and conditions. A real estate transaction is really about managing people, their desires and their finances. It is an intricate and consequential negotiation.


Greg understands that it is important to secure not only the most able buyer, but also to the one that is most likely to close the deal. When so much is at stake, Greg is the one you want to represent you. His fair yet aggressive negotiating style and protectiveness of his clients’ best interests and ultimately, their assets, has gained his respect with colleagues and clients alike.


Greg also knows that every transaction represents the most important purchase or sale a person can make, and he takes every precaution to ensure that communication is impeccable with all parties involved from beginning to end. Whether it’s patiently guiding first time buyers through this exciting process or following through with clients’ needs long after the transaction is over, Greg’s warm, caring yet efficient business style will turn you into a client for life.


Driven


Greg grew up in the Greater Boston area and has a deep appreciation for the North East way of life. He attended The University of Massachusetts at Dartmouth where he graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in Marketing, with a concentration in Marketing Research. Greg’s professional background is rooted in the technology sales & marketing. As a result, he learned to adapt to many different people and situations quickly and competitively. The insight that he has gained from many years of involvement in bringing all components of a transaction together smoothly has granted him a unique perspective and approach to the real estate industry. His enthusiasm and tenacity has allowed him to emerge as one of Greater Boston’s finest Realtors, and one of the highest reviewed amongst Arlington MA Realtors!


My Goal


My goal is to provide the best experience possible to my clients while helping them achieve their real estate goals. My streamline systems and use of technology ensure a smooth ride along the way. Whether it’s a first-time buyer, a seller, or investor, I strive to gain lifelong clients and friends by providing them with a fun, relaxing, but yet educational experience throughout the entire process.


Objectives for my Buyer Clients


Counsel session to determine wants & needsSchedule times to view properties

Run comparable analysis report for subject property

Help negotiate terms of the offer

Provided options for home inspectors

Help negotiate & finalize terms of Purchase & Sale Agreement

Assist in finalizing finances with Mortgage Broker

Handle any other paperwork and/or tasks including meeting mortgage commitment deadlines to making sure the transaction closes on time.

I keep an open door policy with all my clients even after the sale should they have any questions, or need help with any of their real estate needs. The closing of a real estate transaction is not the end, but just the beginning of a relationship.


Objectives for my Seller Clients


Listen carefully to make sure your goals and objectives are clearly understood

Explain the home selling process thoroughly

Discuss agency relationship

Price your home accurately

Stage your home for sale

Plan & implement a proven & innovative marketing plan

Work diligently to sell your home quickly and efficiently

Follow up with open house leads & showing brokers to obtain feedback

Work hard to ensure that each step of the transaction is running smoothly

To ensure that all smoke & carbon monoxide detectors are installed and working correctly, and to obtain certificate from town/city

To obtain final payoff for city/town water bill

“Most Importantly to communicate with you consistently and efficiently throughout the entire home selling process”

Certifications and Recognitions


Winner of Leading Edge Real Estate’s Outstanding Creative Marketing Award. Certified Residential Specialist (CRS)

Accredited Buyers Representative (ABR)

Member of the Institute of Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM)

Licensed Massachusetts Real Estate Broker

Member of Greater Boston Real Estate Board (GBREB)

Member of National Association of REALTORS (NAR)

Zoning & Building Codes Certificate

Residential New Construction Certificate

Title V Certificate